🟡 Semafor Flagship: Growth bubbles, bubble tea | Semafor | Semafor (2024)

US nears Ukraine vote

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson will call a vote on aid for Ukraine this week, separating the issue from Taiwan and Israel to placate the Republican Party’s right. One hardline Republican representative told reporters she was “firmly against the plan as it stands right now” and threatened to move to oust the only recently appointed speaker. Congressional stalling has left Ukraine desperately short of supplies. The country’s commander-in-chief said the situation on the eastern front “has significantly worsened,” and an officer told the Financial Times that Russian forces fire “five, six, sometimes seven shells” for each one from Ukraine.

Poorer nations’ growing challenges

World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings this week will cast a spotlight on developing countries’ worsening plight. Many poorer nations are, for the first time this century, experiencing a widening income gap against their richer peers, the World Bank said. At the same time, Western nations — grappling with the costs of the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, as well as a huge spate of elections in which nationalist forces are ascendant — are curtailing their foreign aid spending. The consequences are significant: One analyst told Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter that funds to fight climate change are at risk, while a new report warned that dozens of developing countries are having to choose between meeting development goals or facing insolvency.

You don’t want to miss the 2024 World Economy Summit, featuring 100+ on the record interviews with the most consequential power players in the world. This is Semafor’s boldest venture in live journalism yet, and the only major media event to be held against the background of the IMF and World Bank meetings, taking place in Washington, D.C., on April 17-18.

China’s positive GDP surprise

China reported higher-than-expected economic growth, but analysts voiced concern over other downbeat indicators. The world’s second-biggest economy grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, further buoying hopes the country can escape a post-COVID malaise: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs last week lifted their forecasts for 2024 economic growth. Yet separate data showed industrial production and retail sales were well below expectations, questions remain over how Beijing will address a mammoth debt load, and CréditAgricole’s chief China economist told Bloomberg of concerns that growth above policymakers’ 5% target could dissuade them from carrying out what analysts see as much-needed economic reforms and stimulus.

Bubble tea ballooning

China’s biggest bubble tea companies are planning to list on the stock market. “Boba,” flavored milky teas with tapioca balls floating in them, were popularized in Taiwan in the 1980s and have become a global phenomenon. One firm, Mixue, has 3,000 stores outside China, and a trade association said the industry had doubled in value between 2018 and 2022 to $14 billion, with more growth expected. A Shanghai-based branding consultant told the Financial Times that “Coffee is a foreign product, whereas tea is very much Chinese,” meaning boba demand is partly driven by national pride. The BBC said in the U.K. it especially appealed to young Muslim customers, being halal and alcohol-free.

Donors pledge Sudan support

International donors pledged more than $2 billion for war-torn Sudan as the country marked a year since the beginning of a devastating conflict that has killed thousands of people and displaced millions more. However the funds represent a fraction of the aid that is needed, according to experts, with the German foreign minister warning that as many as a million people could die of hunger this year if support isn’t increased. Even if aid were bolstered, questions remain over whether it can be delivered: Sudan’s army has said it would bar access to the swaths of the country controlled by the rebel Rapid Support Forces. “We had to help ourselves, share food with each other, and depend on God,” a resident of the capital told Reuters.

Argentina’s improving US ties

Argentina will buy two dozen used F-16 fighter jets from the U.S., a move that underscores improving ties between the two nations since Javier Milei became president. Although Buenos Aires could have bought China’s JF-17 jets — a more modern plane that better suited its needs, according to experts — it chose to purchase the U.S.-made ones for a geostrategic reason: “The U.S. wants to slow down China’s advance in Latin America,” and Milei, unlike his predecessors who gravitated toward Beijing over the past decade, “wants to be perceived as an unconditional ally of Washington,” El País argued.

The quandaries of Israel’s response

Israel’s promise of a response over Iran’s weekend barrage of missiles and drones — coupled with Western calls for restraint — point to twin quandaries that could define the future course of the Middle East conflict, analysts said. Israel is grappling with calibrating its strategy to “demonstrate its willingness to use force … without creating precisely the crisis it seeks to avert,” The Washington Post’s David Ignatius said. Washington, meanwhile, is trying to balance objectives — providing “ironclad” support for Israel while trying to prevent a wider regional war — which are increasingly at odds with one another, according to Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times: “The U.S. will need luck, as well as judgment, to get to the other side of this crisis.”

Terror fears for Olympic ceremony

French President Emmanuel Macron said the Paris Olympics opening ceremony could be moved from the River Seine if the security risk is too high. The plan is to sail 10,000 athletes down the Seine. But threats by the Khorasan branch of Islamic State — which claimed responsibility for the deadly Moscow attacks last month — to soccer matches in Paris, Madrid, and London have raised concerns about possible attacks on the Olympics. The Militant Wire newsletter said the terror group was asking supporters to “carry out lone-actor attacks.” Macron said that “There are plan Bs and plan Cs,” including hosting a more traditional ceremony in the national stadium. He also expressed hope that “an Olympic truce” could be arranged in Ukraine for the duration of the games.

Record heat causes coral bleaching

Record ocean temperatures have triggered a global mass coral bleaching event. August saw the highest average ocean temperatures ever recorded, driven by the El Niño phenomenon on top of climate change. Warm water stresses coral, causing it to expel the colorful algae living in its tissues: If temperatures remain high the coral can die. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it had received reports of bleaching worldwide since August, including off Mauritius, Tanzania, Brazil, the Great Barrier Reef, and the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Coral reefs are home to a quarter of all marine species, and many species of fish navigate using the popping sound made by snapping shrimp that live in the reefs.

The rise of the feline movie star

Cats are increasingly used in movies as improved training and cheaper graphical effects make them easier to direct. Cats are notoriously tricky to train — they have a reputation in Hollywood for ruining shots and delaying production, meaning dogs have traditionally been used when a pet is called for. But affordable computer graphics mean “it could be done seamlessly with CG and no one would ever know,” one director told The Hollywood Reporter. And professional cat trainers now spend weeks readying real cats for film, using at least two for every role. As a result, recent and upcoming releases such as Ripley, The Marvels, and Argylle all feature feline stars, a run which would have been unusual not long ago.

• NATO forces stage Black Sea war games in Romania.
• Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Slovenia as part of a diplomatic campaign to gather support for the recognition of a Palestinian state.
• The World Retail Congress begins in Paris.

Semafor’s Climate & Energy Editor Tim McDonnell will interview Shell USA President Gretchen Watkins on stage at the World Economy Summit. RSVP for the event here.

Salman Rushdie’s new memoir, Knife, is published today. In it the Booker Prize-winner details his account of surviving a stabbing in 2022 — three decades after a fatwa from Iran calling for his death. Rushdie, who was left blind in one eye, told CBS News that he had a “premonition” of the assault days before it took place and described his survival as a kind of miracle in spite of his lack of spiritual belief. “I certainly don’t feel that some hand reached down from the skies and guarded me,” he said. “But I do think something happened which wasn’t supposed to happen. And I have no explanation for it.”

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